We are entering that business period of the 2024/25 NBA regular season, the time when every game matters as we head toward the Playoffs. Overall, the season thus far has been interesting, to say the least. We’ve seen teams with early hot-starts (Thunder, Cavaliers) keep up their blistering form. We have seen a couple of teams emerge to look like their form will peak at the right time (Nuggets, Lakers), and we have those disappointing teams that look like they are out of time to get their act together (76ers).
Of course, there is also the defending champions, the Boston Celtics. Joe Mazzulla’s men remain the favorites to win the NBA Championship, although they share that status with the Oklahoma City Thunder with some sportsbooks, and others have OKC slightly ahead. Regardless, the Celtics have sat in the favorites spot in the betting markets for the majority of the season, despite the fact that it looks more and more likely that they will miss out on the No.1 Seed spot in the Eastern Conference and lose a lot more games than last season.
Celtics’ Favorites Tag Is Based On More Than Results
From a betting perspective, this is somewhat interesting. Basically, what it is saying is that the odds aren’t decided on the season’s raw statistics alone. If that were the case, the Cavs would be the favorites (they are a long way behind the Celtics as third favorites overall) in the Eastern Conference. The logical assumption is that the odds are based both on what happened last season and what we are seeing this season. That’s hardly ground-breaking insight – that happens in sports betting all the time.
Yet, it does warrant closer scrutiny. We know that sports is more than statistics. If you look at expert NBA fantasy picks, for instance, you’ll know that there is some kind of human intuition behind them as well as statistical analysis. And what sportsbooks are doing is suggesting that there is more to the Celtics than what we see in the NBA standings. They are, of course, factoring in the Playoff experience of the team, certainly compared to the Cavs and OKC, as well as Mazzulla’s nous, and the ability of players like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to be “clutch.”
While it might seem like comparing apples and oranges, we can draw some parallels with the Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL last season. If you’re not a football fan, it’s enough to say that the Chiefs (who, like the Celtics, were defending champions) looked pretty turgid for a lot of the regular season, yet they often found a way to win. The team actually flirted with setting records for winning low scoring games by tight margins.
Sportsbooks Believe The Celtics Have Another Level
Now, the Celtics have not been turgid – far from it – but the sportsbooks are broadly following the same logic: Basically, the Celtics, like the Chiefs, will find a way to win when it matters, i.e., they will rise to the occasion in the Playoffs. While the Chiefs ultimately lost Super Bowl LIX, the point still stands.
They were the favorites at the beginning of the season, favorites when the Playoffs began, and favorites for Super Bowl LIX against the Eagles, despite often looking shaky throughout the regular season.
In the simplest terms, the NBA Championship odds as they are today tell us one thing: that sportsbooks believe that the Celtics have another level to find. As mentioned, they have not been bad. They have been very good, just not as imperious as last season. The question is how this hypothesis will play out when the Playoffs get underway.
